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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.