🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."